Countercurrents – June 4, 2024
India Elections: Huge Setback for Narendra Modi and BJP
by Countercurrents Collective
After ruling for 10 years India’s right-wing Hindu Nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) failed to make a decisive majority in India’s 543 member parliament. As per the latest trends BJP is leading in 240 seats, 30 short of a simple majority. However, the BJP led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is leading in 290 seats, just over the majority mark. However, the equations may change as the opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A) are leading in 234 seats. Independents and other smaller political parties are leading in 19 seats. One cannot rule out the possibility of one or other political parties in either of these alliances switching sides and forming a government.
The results are a huge setback for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He had campaigned for 400 seats for BJP in this election. He had asked the voters to give him 400 seats in this election so that he could make necessary policy reforms without hindrances of alliance partners. However, BJP’s tally was reduced to 240 seats, making sure that the next government in India would be a coalition government.
Indian National Congress is the second biggest party with 98 seats.
BJP got a huge setback as it could secure only 38 seats in the decisive Uttar Pradesh where there are 80 seats. Samajwadi Party won 41 seats in Uttar Pradesh.
https://countercurrents.org/2024/06/india-elections-huge-setback-for-narendra-modi-and-bjp/
BJP lost in Ram Mandir constituency of Faizabad. Here's what it means
BJP candidate Lallu Singh, the sitting MP, has conceded the race in Uttar Pradesh’s Faizabad – the constituency in which the Ram Mandir has been built – to Samajwadi Party candidate Awadhesh Prasad. Experts say that the Dalit vote in the state favoured the INDI alliance and that issues of development and unemployment trumped religion
In a result that will leave many shocked, the BJP has lost its seat in Uttar Pradesh’s Faizabad – the constituency in which the Ram Mandir has been built.
BJP candidate Lallu Singh, the sitting MP, has conceded the race to Samajwadi Party candidate Awadhesh Prasad.
Singh was quoted as saying by Indian Express, “Hum aapka samman nahi bacha paaye (we could not save your respect.”
“There could have been some fault in me. You worked very hard and showed full dedication towards the party. My only request is that it may happen that if you go out in the area, opposition leaders and workers may comment on us. But will have to show tolerance and avoid any unwarranted things. You win some, you lose some in a battlefield,” Singh added.
“I will introspect about myself. There could have been a reason that we lost this election. Despite Modi-Yogi leadership, this has happened, so there must be some major flaw in me. Go to your home now. Do not lose your heart.”
Singh was previously elected to Parliament in 2019 and 2014 when the BJP-led NDA netted 71 and 62 seats in Uttar Pradesh.
Prasad, meanwhile, told the media, “I will get those people rehabilitated, whose houses or shops were demolished by the BJP government. I will work to keep Lord Ram’s dignity intact.”
The BJP looks set for heavy losses in the bellwether northern state of Uttar Pradesh.
The Opposition Samajwadi Party has won 23 seats and is leading in 14 seats, while the Congress has won four seats and is leading in two.
The BJP, meanwhile, has won 22 seats and is leading in 11 seats.
Let’s take a look at why this is significant
The Ram temple, inaugurated in January by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, was seen as an event that would cement his legacy and the party’s poll victory.
The opening temple, on a site previously contested by Muslims, fulfilled a three-decades old BJP promise which it mentioned in almost every campaign rally during the massive two-months long vote.
Dheeraj Mishra, writing for Indian Express, noted that chants like “500 varshon baad Ram Lalla apne ghar me aaye hain” and “Jo Raam ko laaye hain hum unko laayenge” were frequently used at the BJP’s rallies.
The Ram temple in Ayodhya has been the fulcrum of BJP’s politics in the 1990s – which catapulted it to the national level.
According to The Times of India, several reasons can be offered for the BJP’s underwhelming performance in Uttar Pradesh.
These include the performance of “UP ke ladke” Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav, the Opposition claiming that Modi would remove Yogi Adityanath as chief minister and a spike in prices of food, petrol LPG, is to be factored in too.
“The SP-Congress coalition has also gained it votes from the Dalits and minorities, and this went against the BJP,” the piece noted.
Prasad, the Samajwadi candidate, is a Dalit.
“The way BSP’s core voters got scattered, it is very clear that Dalits this time voted for the INDI alliance,” political analyst Preetam Srivastava told Moneycontrol.
A piece in Moneycontrol quoted analysts as saying that the public in UP may have voted along the lines of caste. It argued that the ‘400 paar’ slogan also may have hurt the BJP as it raised concerns about possible constitutional amendments.
“The 2024 elections in UP have underscored the enduring importance of caste dynamics over religious sentiment in electoral politics. The BJP’s loss, despite the Ram Temple consecration, suggests that voters prioritised local issues and caste affiliations over broader religious narratives,” the piece concluded.
The Samajwadi Party’s move to field a Dalit candidate in a non-reserved seat proved successful, Prashant Trivedi, associate professor at the Giri Institute of Development Studies, told Hindustan Times.
Modi during campaigning in Barabanki and Hamirpur on 17 May had claimed that the Congress and the Samajwadi Party would run a bulldozer over the Ram temple if elected to power.
He asked them to take lessons from Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath on where bulldozers should be used instead.
‘Mandir alone cannot work’
The outcome has drawn the focus of analysts to the issues of unemployment and high inflation – two key concerns of voters that surveys showed trumped religion.
“The result has also inherent message that the ‘Mandir alone’ cannot work when there is a joblessness, paper leaks, rising inflation and local issues are not being addressed properly,” Mishra wrote in Indian Express.
“The decline in the seats of the BJP is linked to three states, which are Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan. In UP particularly the construction and inauguration of the Ram temple did not become a big issue. The social coalition made by Samajwadi Party and Congress seems to have made the difference as it was formidable,” Lokniti national coordinator Sandeep Shastri told Reuters.
Political analyst Surendra Kumar Diwedi told Reuters, “Developmental issues especially, which are related to youths like rampant leaks of the competitive examination (services) and unemployment, had made an impact on the youths who were the largest chunk of voters.”
“We are very happy with the temple but people were fed up with the BJP,” said Rakesh Yadav.
Yadav is the chairperson of the Ayodhya Vyapar Mandal, a traders body.
He said there was anger among small business owners for getting lower than expected compensation when their shops were demolished during Ayodhya’s redevelopment ahead of the temple inauguration.
“People will not always fall for the caste or temple-mosque politics. They also want to see development which is why the results may surprise us all,” he added.
On 22 January, an idol of the new Ram Lalla was consecrated at the Ayodhya temple, in a landmark event led by the prime minister who also gave a clarion call to go beyond the grand mandir’s construction to build the foundation of a “strong, capable and divine” India of the next 1,000 years.
The Ram temple was constructed on orders of the Supreme Court after a bloody, decades-long dispute that in 1992 saw a Hindu crowd demolish a 16th Century mosque that existed on the site, claiming it was built on the birthplace of Lord Ram.
https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/bjp-lost-in-ram-mandir-constituency-of-faizabad-heres-what-it-means-13778768.html
No landslide but Modi's Hindu nationalists eye victory in India polls
India's Hindu nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his allies were poised for victory Tuesday, but the opposition claimed they had "punished" the ruling party by reducing its parliamentary majority.
Commentators and exit polls had projected an overwhelming victory for Modi, whose campaign wooed the Hindu majority to the worry of the country's 200-million-plus Muslim community, deepening concerns over minority rights.
But for the first time in a decade, Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could fail to secure an overall majority of its own, figures from the election commission projected, meaning it would need to rely on its alliance partners.
The main opposition Congress party was set to nearly double its parliamentary seats, in a remarkable turnaround largely driven by deals to field single candidates against the BJP's electoral juggernaut.
"Voters have punished the BJP," Congress leader Rahul Gandhi told reporters. "I was confident that the people of this country would give the right response."
With more than 95% of votes counted, the BJP's vote share at 36.9% was marginally lower than it was in the last polls in 2019.
Modi was re-elected to his constituency representing the Hindu holy city of Varanasi by a margin of 152,000 votes – compared to nearly half a million votes five years ago.
The election commission figures showed the BJP and its allies leading in at least 292 seats out of a total of 543, enough for a parliamentary majority.
But the BJP itself had won or was leading in only 240, well down from the 303 it took five years ago, while Congress had won or was ahead in 98, up from 52.
'Moral defeat'
Celebrations had already begun at the headquarters of Modi's BJP before the full announcement of results.
But the mood at the Congress headquarters in New Delhi was also one of jubilation.
"BJP has failed to win a big majority on its own," Congress lawmaker Rajeev Shukla told reporters. "It's a moral defeat for them."
Stocks slumped on speculation the reduced majority would hamper the BJP's ability to push through reforms.
Shares in the main listed unit of Adani Enterprises – owned by key Modi ally Gautam Adani – dropped 25%, before recovering.
Modi's opponents have struggled to counter the BJP's well-oiled and well-funded campaign machine and have been hamstrung by what they say are politically motivated criminal cases aimed at hobbling challengers.
U.S. think tank Freedom House said this year that the BJP had "increasingly used government institutions to target political opponents."
Arvind Kejriwal, chief minister of the capital Delhi and a key leader in an alliance formed to compete against Modi, returned to jail on Sunday.
Kejriwal, 55, was detained in March over a long-running corruption probe but was later released and allowed to campaign as long as he returned to custody once voting ended.
"When power becomes dictatorship then jail becomes a responsibility," Kejriwal said before surrendering himself, vowing to continue "fighting" from behind bars.
'Strength of Indian democracy'
Many of India's Muslim minority are increasingly uneasy about their futures and their community's place in the constitutionally secular country.
Modi himself made several strident comments about Muslims on the campaign trail, referring to them as "infiltrators."
The polls were staggering in their size and logistical complexity, with 642 million voters casting their ballots – ranging from megacities New Delhi and Mumbai, as well as in sparsely populated forest areas and the high-altitude Himalayas.
"People should know about the strength of Indian democracy," Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar said Monday, calling the counting process "robust."
Based on the commission's figure of an electorate of 968 million, turnout came to 66.3%, down roughly one percentage point from 67.4% in the last polls in 2019.
Analysts have partly blamed the lower turnout on a searing heatwave across northern India, with temperatures over 45 degrees Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit).
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